Agronomy, Vol. 15, Pages 2777: Optimal Planting Areas of Sea Buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides) Under the Influences of Climate Change and Pests Using the MaxEnt Model

Agronomy doi: 10.3390/agronomy15122777

Authors:
Yuhao Nie
Gaopeng Yu
Hongying Hu

As a versatile shrub, sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) plays a significant role in restoring degraded ecosystems and supporting regional economies. However, its cultivation faces increasing risks from climate change and pest infestations, particularly from Rhagoletis batava and Cossus cossus. This study aimed to evaluate potential suitable planting areas for H. rhamnoides under current and future climate conditions while accounting for pest risks. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict species distributions and their overlap with pest habitats across multiple climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. The results indicate that currently, 61.95% of the suitable areas for H. rhamnoides face threats from pests. Under future scenarios, the total suitable area showed an increasing trend under SSP126 and SSP245, but a significant decrease under SSP585 by the 2090s. Notably, the area severely threatened by both pests was projected to reduce dramatically, by up to 85.40% under the high-emission scenario (SSP585–2090s), suggesting a potential ecological window for cultivation expansion in certain regions. The study introduces a dual-constraint model incorporating both climate and pest variables, providing a more accurate assessment of optimal planting areas. These findings offer critical insights for the sustainable management of H. rhamnoides cultivation by highlighting regions where pest control strategies should be prioritized and informing future policy and management decisions.

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