Applied Sciences, Vol. 15, Pages 7573: Data-Driven Forecasting of Acute and Chronic Hepatitis B in Ukraine with Recurrent Neural Networks

Applied Sciences doi: 10.3390/app15137573

Authors:
Mykola Butkevych
Sergiy Yakovlev
Dmytro Chumachenko

Reliable short-term forecasts of hepatitis B incidence are indispensable for sizing national vaccine and antiviral procurement. However, predictive modelling is complicated when surveillance streams experience reporting delays and episodic under-reporting, as has occurred in Ukraine since 2022. We address this challenge by training a deliberately compact two-layer long short-term memory (LSTM) network on 72 monthly observations (January 2018–December 2023) drawn from the Public Health Center electronic registry and evaluating performance on a strictly held-out 12-month horizon (January–December 2024). Grid-search optimisation selected a 12-month sliding input window, 64 hidden units per layer, 0.20 dropout, the Adam optimiser, and early stopping. Walk-forward validation showed that the network attained mean squared errors of 411 for acute infection and 76 for chronic infection on the monthly series. When forecasts were aggregated to the cumulative scale, the mean absolute percentage error remained below 1%. This study presents the first peer-reviewed hepatitis B forecasts calibrated on Ukraine’s registry during a period of pronounced reporting instability, demonstrating that robust accuracy is attainable without missing-value imputation.

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Mykola Butkevych www.mdpi.com