Applied Sciences, Vol. 15, Pages 9884: Vehicle Collision Frequency Prediction Using Traffic Accident and Traffic Volume Data with a Deep Neural Network

Applied Sciences doi: 10.3390/app15189884

Authors:
Yeong Gook Ko
Kyu Chun Jo
Ji Sun Lee
Jik Su Yu

This study proposes a hybrid deep learning framework for predicting vehicle crash frequency (Fi) using nationwide traffic accident and traffic volume data from the United States (2019–2022). Crash frequency is defined as the product of exposure frequency (Na) and crash risk rate (λ), a structure widely adopted for its ability to separate physical exposure from the crash likelihood. Na was computed using an extended Safety Performance Function (SPF) that incorporates roadway traffic volume, segment length, number of lanes, and traffic density, while λ was estimated using a multilayer perceptron-based deep neural network (DNN) with inputs such as impact speed, road surface condition, and vehicle characteristics. The DNN integrates rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation, batch normalization, dropout layers, and the Huber loss function to capture nonlinearity and over-dispersion beyond the capability of traditional statistical models. Model performance, evaluated through five-fold cross-validation, achieved R2 = 0.7482, MAE = 0.1242, and MSE = 0.0485, demonstrating a strong capability to identify high-risk areas. Compared to traditional regression approaches such as Poisson and negative binomial models, which are often constrained by equidispersion assumptions and limited flexibility in capturing nonlinear effects, the proposed framework demonstrated substantially improved predictive accuracy and robustness. Unlike prior studies that loosely combined SPF terms with machine learning, this study explicitly decomposes Fi into Na and λ, ensuring interpretability while leveraging DNN flexibility for crash risk estimation. This dual-layer integration provides a unique methodological contribution by jointly achieving interpretability and predictive robustness, validated with a nationwide dataset, and highlights its potential for evidence-based traffic safety assessments and policy development.

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Yeong Gook Ko www.mdpi.com