1. Introduction
Energy security has historically been a crucial concern for European nations, evolving alongside shifts in geopolitical landscapes, economic pressures, and technological advancements. Ensuring a stable and diverse supply of energy sources is fundamental to socio-economic stability, particularly in light of recent global challenges such as energy market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and climate change. The European Union has witnessed significant changes in its energy production and consumption patterns over the last few decades, influenced by policy initiatives aimed at decarbonization and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports. These shifts are also a result of broader social, economic, and geopolitical changes which have reshaped the energy sector in the EU. This context underlines the need for continuous monitoring and analysis of energy structures to ensure sustainable and secure energy transitions.
Over the period from 1990 to 2022, European countries faced substantial transitions in their primary energy production. The increasing prominence of renewable energy sources has changed the energy sector. However, these shifts are not uniform across the continent, with many countries maintaining a significant reliance on fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Cluster analysis provides a valuable approach for understanding the structure and changes in primary energy production across countries. By categorizing nations into clusters based on their energy production profiles, we can gain insights into the evolution of energy systems and identify patterns that inform policy decisions and strategic planning.
The main goal of this paper is to investigate the structure and trends in primary energy production in the European Union and other selected European countries. This article serves as a continuation of a series of studies aimed at systematically analyzing different aspects of primary energy in Europe. The author’s intention is to provide a comprehensive exploration of the energy landscape by examining interconnected areas over multiple publications. In the previous work [
1], the study concentrated on primary energy consumption structures across European nations. Building upon that foundation, the present study shifts the focus to the production of primary energy, offering further insights into the European energy market. The analysis is enriched by a
k-means clustering of countries into clusters with similar primary energy production structures. The study focuses on countries for which data are available in the Eurostat database, ensuring comprehensive coverage based on reliable sources. The analysis utilized data from the Eurostat database for the period from 1990 to 2022 (specifically the table
nrg_bal_s) [
2]. Primary energy sources considered in the analysis align with the Standard International Energy Product Classification (SIEC), which includes solid fossil fuels, natural gas, crude oil, nuclear energy, renewable energy sources, peat, and non-renewable waste.
The clustering analysis aimed to identify groups of similar countries, thereby offering valuable insights into their present energy situation and energy security, as well as changes that occurred between 1990 and 2022. The cluster analysis was conducted for both the beginning and the end of this period to capture the dynamics over time. As this paper is a continuation, the theoretical introduction to energy security and cluster analysis has been significantly abbreviated, given that these topics were comprehensively addressed in the earlier article [
1]. This analysis was performed utilizing the R programming language, version 4.4.0 [
3] along with RStudio IDE [
4], incorporating the tidyverse packages [
5].
The structure of the article is as follows: the introduction provides a concise overview of energy security and its connection to primary energy production. Subsequently, primary energy production in selected European nations from 1990 to 2022 is described, assessing how domestic production meets consumption needs. This is succeeded by a detailed presentation of the clustering analysis and its findings. The article concludes with a summary and conclusions.
1.1. Historical Development of Energy Security
Energy security has historically been a significant concern, gaining importance especially during the latter part of the 20th century. It encompasses various aspects, including the necessity of continuous, secure access to reliable and affordable energy sources as a fundamental requirement for the advancement of civilization [
6], the pivotal role of energy in socio-economic life [
7], and its undeniable influence on economic functioning and development [
8], social welfare, and consumption processes [
9]. Adequate energy resource availability highlights the economic and political power of nations and international organizations [
10], positioning energy as a central component of both national and global security [
11], significantly shaping contemporary global dynamics [
12]. The concept of energy security has developed over the years, distinguishable by various phases including non-politicized, politicized, and securitized stages [
10]. Key incidents, such as the oil crises of the 1970s, signified the shift toward energy politicization [
13]. Initially focused on energy self-sufficiency [
14], efficient project management [
15], and advanced technologies [
16], the definition expanded approaching the new millennium to include international cooperation, equitable energy access, and environmental considerations [
17]. Recent events, such as gas price fluctuations in 2021 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have dramatically threatened Europe’s energy security, leading to a renewed emphasis on energy sovereignty and solidarity [
18]. Moreover, climate change poses a serious threat to energy security, impacting both the accessibility and the cost of energy, prompting the need for investments in sustainable energy technologies [
19,
20]. Further detailed information on these aspects can be found in the referenced literature.
1.2. Modern Definitions and Components
There is no single, officially approved, and globally accepted definition of energy security, although it is frequently described as securing adequate energy supplies at reasonable costs [
21]. For example, Klare considers it as ensuring the availability of energy resources to satisfy a state’s essential needs, even during crises or international disputes [
22]. Similarly, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) highlights the importance of prompt and sustainable energy delivery at prices that support economic stability [
23]. Contemporary definitions typically include four main components, referred to as the ‘4 As’ approach: Availability (ensuring physical access to energy), Accessibility (addressing geographical, political, demographic, and technological challenges to obtaining energy resources), Affordability (providing energy at reasonable costs), and Acceptability (focusing on energy sources that are environmentally and socially sustainable) [
17]. Among these elements, accessibility and affordability are considered most crucial because of their broad impact on other aspects of energy security [
24].
1.3. Threats and Challenges
The literature outlines three main threats to energy security: technical issues such as infrastructure failures, social factors like fluctuating energy demand or politically driven supply disruptions, and natural risks including the depletion of fossil fuel reserves or climate change [
25]. Although energy security is frequently associated with supply stability, institutions like the International Energy Agency (IEA) define it as the “uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price” [
26], and the European Commission stresses the significance of diversifying energy sources to reduce dependency risks [
27]. Ensuring stable energy supplies is a high priority for numerous governments worldwide [
28,
29]. The complex nature of energy security, along with its shifting definitions and various threats, highlights its importance in modern geopolitics and economics. As the world faces the challenges of sustainable energy, comprehending and safeguarding energy security becomes crucial.
1.4. Primary Energy Production and Energy Security
Primary energy sources are natural resources that remain unconverted into other energy forms, such as coal, crude oil, natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable sources like wind, solar, and geothermal energy [
30]. The structure of primary energy production influences energy security in the following ways: The diversification of energy sources—countries producing energy from various primary sources are less susceptible to supply disruptions, encompassing both traditional and renewable sources [
31]. Energy self-sufficiency—a high level of domestic primary energy production reduces the need for imports, making countries less vulnerable to external disruptions and price fluctuations [
32]. Import dependency—countries reliant on imports face significant risks such as price fluctuation sensitivity due to geopolitical factors [
33], supply disruption risks from political conflicts or trade decisions [
34], and geopolitical dependency that can limit political and economic sovereignty [
35]. Investments in energy production technologies—the development of modern technologies like small modular nuclear reactors or advanced renewable technologies enhances efficiency and reliability, reduces CO
2 emissions, and improves overall energy security. In summary, efficient and diversified primary energy production is crucial for ensuring a country’s energy security, and energy policies should focus on increasing domestic production, diversifying sources, and investing in modern energy technologies.
2. Primary Energy Production in the European Union and Other European Countries
The production of primary energy in European Union countries has changed significantly over the past thirty years. Throughout this period, there has been a downward trend in total production, decreasing by nearly 7.5 EJ between 1990 and 2021 (
Figure 1). In contrast, consumption exhibited a horizontal trend over the same period (
Figure 2). Consequently, the primary energy deficit has deepened, requiring an increasing amount to be imported. There is also a notable difference between the structure of primary energy production and consumption in EU countries, as well as in the dynamics over the analyzed period.
In the early 1990s, solid fossil fuels held the largest share in primary energy production in the EU. However, by the late 1990s, they fell to second place, and by the late 2000s, to third place. At that time, nuclear energy was generally second, and even rose to first place from 1998 to 2015, before returning back to second. In 1990, natural gas held the third position in the primary energy production structure but dropped to fourth in 2005. Conversely, renewable energy sources experienced a remarkable surge, moving from fourth place to first over the 30-year analysis period. The production of primary energy from other sources (including crude oil) remained insignificant (
Figure 1).
It is noteworthy that the structure of primary energy consumption in EU countries varies considerably from their production structure, with notable changes occurring within it as well. During the analyzed period, crude oil consistently remained the primary source of consumption, while significant shifts took place in the subsequent rankings. In the early 1990s, solid fossil fuels ranked as the second most common source of primary energy in EU27 countries. However, within a few years they dropped to third place, and then fell to fourth in 2018 and to fifth the following year, before rising back to fourth place in 2022. Natural gas overtook solid fossil fuels, securing second place in 1998 and holding this position until the end of the analyzed period. This shift resulted from the adoption of natural gas as a transitional fuel in the energy transition process and its substantial role in replacing nuclear energy, especially in Germany. Nuclear energy maintained the fourth position for most of the analyzed period, slipping to fifth from 2015 to 2018 as it was surpassed first by renewable energy sources and then by solid fossil fuels. It regained fourth place in 2019 but fell back to fifth in 2022. The rise in the significance of renewable energy is notable; it ranked fifth in 1990 and had climbed to third by the end of 2022 (
Figure 2).
In summary, examining the primary energy production structure in European Union countries in 1990 reveals that solid fossil fuels were the largest source, making up 41.2% of total production. This was followed by nuclear energy at 25.4%, natural gas at 16.6%, renewable energy sources at 9.5%, crude oil at 5.5%, and other sources contributing smaller shares. By 2022, the structure of primary energy production had changed dramatically—the largest share was held by renewable energy sources (43.3%), followed by nuclear energy (27.7%), solid fossil fuels (16.5%), natural gas (6.2%), and crude oil (3.3%) (
Figure 3).
Figure 4 and
Figure 5 depict changes in the volume of energy derived from different sources. It is noteworthy that production increased only for renewable energy sources (up by 7.2 EJ, +244%) and non-renewable waste (0.4 EJ, +269%). Production from other sources decreased. The largest decline was noted for solid fossil fuels (8.9 EJ, −70%), natural gas (3.7 EJ, −72%), nuclear energy (1.4 EJ, −18%), crude oil (0.9 EJ, −54%), and the marginal sources of peat (0.1 EJ, −87%) and oil shale (0.1 EJ, −53%).
Analyzing changes in primary energy production in individual European countries (
Figure 6), it is evident that the increase occurred in fewer countries, and primarily smaller producers (with the exception of Norway). The largest increase in primary energy production was noted in small countries such as Malta, Latvia, and Portugal. A significant percentage increase in primary energy production was also observed in Norway, a major global producer of petroleum and natural gas. Most large European economies experienced a decline in primary energy production, including Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland.
It is therefore not surprising that the issue of meeting primary energy demand from domestic sources in European Union countries looks very unfavorable. Excluding nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, which are typically consumed in the same country that they are produced, the percentage rates of meeting demand with domestic production are low and continue to decrease (
Figure 7). The percentage of total primary energy demand met by domestic sources fell from 51% in 1990 to 42% in 2022, primarily as a result of a decline in domestic production rather than significant changes in consumption. For solid fossil fuels, this value fell from 80% to 57%. In the case of natural gas, demand was met by 49% from domestic sources in 1990, dropping to 12% in 2022. For crude oil, this indicator remained very low throughout the analyzed period, dropping from 7% to 4%. These values illustrate the extent to which European Union countries are dependent on energy imports and how significant a risk factor this is in terms of energy security. Examining the average proportion of different primary energy sources within the production structure of all analyzed countries (
Figure 8) included in the Eurostat database (beyond just European Union members), it becomes clear that renewable energy sources currently hold the largest average share in the primary energy production structure (rising from 25.1% to 52%). Solid fossil fuels are in second place (declining from 26.1% to 18.3%). Nuclear energy holds the third position (declining from 18% to 13.3%). Natural gas ranks fourth, reducing its share from 13.1% to 6.8%. Crude oil is in fifth place, with its share dropping from 11.6% to 5.7%.
Figure 9 illustrates the proportion of primary energy production in relation to consumption in European countries in 2022, excluding Norway, whose unique characteristics would skew the interpretation of this chart. The highest potential for meeting energy demand through domestic production is observed in Estonia and Sweden. Conversely, countries such as Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus exhibit a very low proportion of primary energy production relative to their consumption. It is important to highlight that these are small countries, and two of them are islands, which explains their reliance on importing the majority of the energy they consume.
Notably, large European economies such as Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland show a comparatively low ratio of primary energy production to consumption, which corroborates the dependency on energy imports mentioned earlier in the article. For instance, Germany, the largest economy in the EU, meets just over 30% of its primary energy demand from domestic sources.
Summarizing the examination of primary energy production across European countries over the past 30 years, we can observe that:
The production of primary energy in the EU has significantly decreased over the last thirty years, with nearly unchanged consumption.
There are significant differences between the structure of primary energy production and consumption in the EU. For some sources (such as crude oil), almost the entire consumption is met through imports.
Renewable energy sources have become the dominant source of primary energy production in EU countries, which is a positive trend in terms of sustainable development but increases risks related to the stability of energy supplies and other aspects of broadly defined energy security.
EU countries, especially large economies, are heavily dependent on energy imports, which poses a challenge to energy security.
To reduce dependency on imports, further investments in renewable energy sources, energy transmission and storage systems, and improvements in energy efficiency are necessary.
High dependence on primary energy imports constitutes a significant risk to the energy security of EU countries. Geopolitical changes, supply disruptions, and rising prices of imported energy can negatively impact the region’s energy stability. Therefore, to ensure energy security, it is essential to pursue an appropriate energy policy that combines the continued development of renewable energy sources with the assurance of stable supplies of those primary energy sources that cannot be easily and quickly replaced by renewable energy.
4. Conclusions
During the period from 1990 to 2022, there were significant changes in the structure of primary energy production in European countries, which affected the differences between energy production and consumption as well as issues related to energy security.
In 1990, renewable energy sources had a marginal share in energy production in most European countries, particularly in those dependent on fossil fuels, such as Poland and Germany. By 2022, renewable energy sources became the dominant energy source in some countries. This growth results from investments in green technologies, technological advancements, and EU regulations supporting the energy transition. In the 1990s, many European countries, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, relied on coal for energy production. Over the next three decades, the importance of coal decreased, reflecting changes in energy strategies and growing pressure to reduce CO2 emissions. Although countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic still rely on coal, its share has been systematically reduced. Natural gas has become a key transitional fuel in the energy transition of many countries. Nuclear energy has maintained its significance, but some countries, like Germany, have decided to phase out nuclear energy; in most countries that traditionally relied on this form of energy, it remains a critical element of the energy mix.
The analysis shows significant transformations that have direct implications for energy security across the continent. Understanding these dynamics is essential to addressing current and future challenges related to reliable and stable energy supplies.
Dependence on imported energy sources: One of the most pressing issues for many European countries is their heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, such as natural gas and oil, from non-European countries. This dependency increases their vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the resulting gas supply restrictions illustrate the risks of over-reliance on single suppliers. The need for diversified energy sources has become more urgent to avoid being subject to external political pressures and market volatility.
Renewable energy and its limitations: While renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower have seen substantial growth, they also introduce new challenges to energy security. The variability and intermittency of renewables mean that energy production can be unpredictable, especially in regions where sun and wind resources are not consistent. Without significant advances in energy storage technologies and grid infrastructure, the over-reliance on renewables could lead to instability in energy supply during peak demand or unfavorable weather conditions.
Role of natural gas as a bridge fuel: Natural gas has been positioned as a transitional fuel to bridge the gap between high-emission fossil fuels and low-emission renewable sources. Its lower carbon footprint compared to coal makes it a preferred option for many European countries aiming to reduce emissions while ensuring energy security. However, the geopolitical implications of natural gas imports, especially from Russia and other non-EU countries, remain a significant risk factor. Efforts to increase LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports from diverse global suppliers are steps toward mitigating this risk, but infrastructural and logistical challenges persist.
Nuclear energy’s stability and controversy: Nuclear energy continues to serve a crucial role in maintaining energy security for many European nations due to its ability to provide a stable and continuous energy supply. Countries like France have leveraged their nuclear infrastructure to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports significantly. However, nuclear energy remains controversial due to concerns about nuclear waste, safety risks, and the high costs associated with plant construction and decommissioning. The decision by some countries, such as Germany, to phase out nuclear energy poses additional challenges in balancing their energy needs with sustainable practices.
Impact of geopolitical events on energy security: The geopolitical landscape greatly influences Europe’s energy security. Conflicts, such as the situation in Ukraine, have highlighted the vulnerabilities of relying on imported energy resources from politically unstable regions. In response, the European Union has been actively seeking ways to reduce its dependence on external suppliers by promoting energy sovereignty and solidarity among member states. This involves enhancing intra-EU energy cooperation, investing in cross-border energy infrastructure, and developing a unified energy policy that can withstand external shocks.
To address these challenges and enhance energy security, several strategic initiatives are critical:
Diversification of energy sources: European countries need to further diversify their energy supply sources, both in terms of energy types (e.g., expanding renewables) and supply origins (e.g., reducing dependency on specific countries). This includes increasing investments in alternative technologies such as hydrogen, biomass, and small modular reactors (SMRs), which can provide stable and scalable energy solutions.
Investment in energy storage and smart grids: The advancement of energy storage technologies is crucial to counteract the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Developing large-scale battery systems, hydrogen storage, and other innovative solutions can significantly enhance grid stability. Moreover, smart grid technologies can help manage energy distribution more effectively, balancing supply and demand in real time.
Strengthening regional energy infrastructure: Enhancing the interconnectedness of Europe’s energy grid is vital for energy security. Building robust cross-border energy infrastructure, such as gas interconnectors, electric grids, and LNG terminals, will enable more efficient energy sharing among EU countries. This infrastructure will help mitigate the impact of local disruptions by distributing resources across the region more flexibly.
Enhancing energy efficiency: Improving energy efficiency across industries and households is a key strategy to reduce overall energy demand. Lower consumption not only lessens the pressure on energy imports but also contributes to achieving decarbonization goals. Energy efficiency measures, including modernizing industrial processes, building renovations, and promoting energy-saving technologies, are fundamental to sustainable development.
Policy and regulatory measures: Strong and coordinated policy frameworks are essential to drive the energy transition and ensure long-term energy security. The European Union’s Green Deal and Fit for 55 initiatives are examples of policy efforts focused on lowering greenhouse gas emissions and promoting the adoption of renewable energy. Regulatory measures should also focus on encouraging investment in clean energy technologies and establishing clear goals to decrease reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Geopolitical alliances and partnerships: Forming strategic alliances with energy-exporting nations that are politically stable and environmentally conscious is crucial for enhancing Europe’s energy security. Diversifying natural gas imports through LNG partnerships with countries like the United States, Qatar, and Australia, alongside fostering stronger ties with renewable energy leaders, will reduce Europe’s exposure to geopolitical risks.
The transformation of primary energy production in Europe from 1990 to 2022 marks a significant shift towards sustainability and cleaner energy sources. However, this transition also underscores the complexities of ensuring energy security in a changing geopolitical and technological reality. The need for a balanced approach that incorporates renewable energy while addressing its limitations, along with investments in diversified and resilient energy infrastructure, is more critical than ever. Europe’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its success in achieving a secure, sustainable, and sovereign energy future.
