Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 4929: Exponential Growth, Convergence and Deconcentration of Demand for Renewable Hydrogen and E-Fuels to 2030

Energies doi: 10.3390/en18184929

Authors:
Mariusz Pyra

Rapid advances in renewable technologies and cross-sector integration are reshaping demand for renewable hydrogen and e-fuels. This study evaluates global and European demand dynamics over 2018–2030, focusing on growth trajectories, regional convergence, and market structure. A concise empirical toolkit—including the Mann–Kendall trend test, log-linear regression, correlation analysis, and concentration metrics such as the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI)—is applied to harmonised datasets. The results indicate a robust upward trajectory of demand, strengthening co-movement across regions, and gradual deconcentration of market shares. At the same time, growth remains heterogeneous and sensitive to policy and cost shocks, implying exposure to volatility. Policy relevance includes the need for coordinated support schemes, timely infrastructure deployment, and diversified investment to capture convergence benefits while mitigating risk. The innovation resides in the demand-side, harmonised multi-region perspective and the combined utilisation of convergence- and concentration-oriented diagnostics with uncertainty bands, yielding replicable, policy-relevant indicators.

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Mariusz Pyra www.mdpi.com