Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it’s transforming your grocery bill today. The energy-intensive agricultural and transportation systems that bring us strawberries in December and year-round coffee are contributing to climate change and being disrupted by it. It’s a troubling environmental justice issue that the 27 countries that are already hunger hotspots generate less than 5% of the total emissions of the G7 nations.

The scientific consensus is that an average temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees Centrigrade will risk global food security, threatening every population and sending hundreds of millions of people in search of food. A recent Arizona State University study of global agriculture concluded that produce yields could fall 35% by 2100.

For now, wealthy countries are buffered from famine. But no one is immune to a changing climate. If you’re paying attention to your grocery bill in 2025, you’ve already noticed some of your favorite foods getting more complicated to find and more expensive. You’re paying more for eight foods today, courtesy of climate change.

Coffee

Like soy, coffee appreciates a warm, moist climate. Coffee grows throughout the tropics, but Brazil is the world’s largest producer. Brazil grows 28% of the world’s heat-resistant Robusta and 41% of the tastier, more heat-sensitive Arabica. But Brazil has seen significant declines in coffee yields thanks to climate change.

A study predicts that the global area suitable for Arabica coffee will decrease by half by 2050. In 2024 alone, Arabic prices jumped by 80%, with wholesale prices reaching a nearly 50-year high. Brazil’s ongoing drought conditions affecting almost 60% of the country, which is expected to drive production down by 4.4% in 2025, have caused coffee prices to soar to historical highs in 2025, with the average cost of specialty coffee increasing by 37% since 2023.

Warming temperatures have some farmers in Italy hoping to grow their coffee beans soon. But even if Italy gives up growing tomatoes, it won’t be enough to replace the 2.16 million hectares Brazil currently devotes to coffee.

Chocolate

Bad news for chocolate lovers: the climate crisis is hitting cocoa production hard. Cocoa mainly grows in Ivory Coast and Ghana, where increasingly severe droughts have made large areas unsuitable for crop growth.

In 2024, global cocoa stocks dropped to their lowest levels in a decade. Price hikes meant cocoa surpassed the growth of every other commodity in the value chain. By early 2025, chocolate manufacturers like Hershey’s reported profit forecasts below analysts’ expectations, with costs for premium chocolate products increasing by as much as 30% in some markets.

Low supplies and skyrocketing costs have led to innovations in the chocolate industry, with companies like Voyage Foods, Planet A Foods, and Food Brewer developing cocoa-free alternatives to futureproof the industry.

Corn (Maize)

The U.S. is the second-largest corn grower in the world (after China), producing billions of pounds per year, mainly in California and the Midwest. Climate change is already affecting this vital crop, with NASA research showing corn yields could decline by 24% as early as 2030 under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

A 2025 study from Environmental Defense Fund found that nearly all counties in Iowa will see corn yields that are more than 5% lower than they would have been without climate change by 2030, with more than half seeing declines of 10% or greater. These reductions could significantly impact everything from food prices to ethanol production.

The effects vary by region. Some areas in the southeastern U.S. see shifts in optimal growing conditions, while drought conditions and higher temperatures during critical growing phases have led to significant crop failures nationwide in recent years.

Avocados

Avocados need temperatures that are neither too hot nor too cold. Mexico, which provides the U.S. with 80% of its avocados, is caught in a troubling cycle: climate change affects crops, but farmers are under pressure to grow more to keep up with surging global demand.

Avocado prices have increased by an average of 17% between 2023 and 2025. Expanding cropland by cutting down forests, particularly in the Amazon, contributes to climate change. Unusual weather is already threatening production, creating a vicious cycle of warmer temperatures contributing to reduced vegetation, which further exacerbates climate change. Water scarcity has become particularly problematic. The average avocado requiring about 60 gallons of water in California and up to 85 gallons in Mexico to grow at a time when water is becoming increasingly precious in drought-stricken regions.

Companies like Chipotle have cited rising avocado costs as a reason for menu price increases. In December 2024, Chipotle raised its menu prices by 2%, attributing the hike to increased costs of key ingredients, including avocados.

Rice

Rice is a dietary staple for more than half the world’s population. Climate change affects rice in multiple ways: increased flooding in some areas, drought in others, and rising temperatures that reduce yields.

According to a 2025 study published in Nature Food, with global warming of 2°C (3.6°F), up to 31% of staple crop production land would be lost, with rice being among the most affected crops. Higher CO₂ levels also reduce the nutritional value of rice, decreasing protein, iron, and zinc content, essential nutrients for billions of people who rely on rice as their primary food source.

In Southeast Asia, where much of the world’s rice is grown, unpredictable monsoon patterns have disrupted traditional growing seasons and led to price volatility in global markets.

Wheat

Global warming affects wheat differently across regions. In northern latitudes, warming temperatures have extended growing seasons, but heat stress and drought have reduced yields in warmer regions. NASA climate models project that wheat could see global growth in demand of about 17% by 2030, but this masks significant regional variations.

Although global production might increase, climate instability means more unpredictable harvests and price volatility. In recent years, extreme weather events like the unprecedented heat waves in the Pacific Northwest have damaged wheat crops at critical growth stages.

A concerning development is that rising CO₂ levels, while potentially boosting growth, reduce protein content in wheat, diminishing the nutritional value of everything from bread to pasta.

Soybeans

Whether you’re a steak-lover or a vegan who depends on tofu for protein, your diet is based on soybeans. The United States, Brazil, and Argentina produce about 80% of the world’s soybeans, a major contributor to deforestation in South America.

Recent U.S. Departmement of Agriculture modeling projects U.S. soybean yields to decrease by 3.0% by 2036, reversing their multi-decade growth trend. Some states will feel these effects more acutely—central U.S. states could see soybean yields decrease by as much as 7.1%.

This decline isn’t just affecting your tofu—it impacts everything from animal feed to vegetable oil production. The U.S. is expected to experience a $319 million decrease in soybean exports by 2036, with a $171 million reduction in exports to China alone.

Tomatoes

The U.S. is the second-largest tomato grower in the world (after China), producing 35 billion pounds of tomatoes per year, mostly in California and Florida. But America still imports more than half of its fresh tomatoes from Mexico and Canada. That percentage may have to grow as the effects of climate change are increasingly felt in California through wildfires and droughts (which caused a domestic shortage in 2021).

Meanwhile, Florida experiences ever-more-severe hurricane seasons. Italy is another major tomato grower, but they are suffering a shortage of cans to export their tomatoes in. You might want to start growing your own tomatoes while you still can.

Eggs

While primarily affected by disease outbreaks rather than direct climate impacts, egg production feels the effects of climate-related stressors. The ongoing bird flu epidemic, which has led to the culling of over 160 million birds, has been exacerbated by changing migration patterns and stress on poultry linked to climate factors.

The USDA predicts egg costs to increase by another 41% in 2025, meaning eggs could cost as much as $7 per dozen. This sharp increase has accelerated the development of alternatives like plant-based liquid formats and precision-fermented egg proteins.

Your Bottom Line

Food is a globally traded commodity, and climate events in one region often raise prices and cause global shortages. What we’re seeing in 2025 is just the beginning of what economists call “climateflation,” where extreme weather events drive persistent food price increases worldwide.

Central banks worldwide are now examining climate change’s impact on prices, with projections suggesting global warming could add up to 3 percentage points to annual food inflation and up to 1.2 points to headline inflation globally by 2035.

The good news? We can act now. Supporting regenerative agriculture, reducing food waste, and shifting to more climate-resilient diets can help secure our food future. Every food choice we make today affects tomorrow’s menu.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published on April 5, 2022, and was updated in May 2025 with the latest data and research.