Forecasting, Vol. 7, Pages 60: Deep Learning-Based Multi-Source Precipitation Forecasting in Arid Regions Using Different Optimizations: A Case Study from Konya, Turkey

Forecasting doi: 10.3390/forecast7040060

Authors:
Vahdettin Demir

Accurate precipitation forecasting plays a crucial role in sustainable water resource management, especially in arid regions like Konya, one of Turkey’s driest areas. Reliable forecasts support effective water budgeting, agricultural planning, and climate adaptation efforts in the region. This study investigates the performance of different deep learning training algorithms in forecasting monthly precipitation using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, a method tailored for time-series prediction. A comprehensive dataset comprising 39 years (1984–2022) of precipitation records was utilized, obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) as ground-based observations and from NASA’s POWER database as remote sensing data, and was split into 80% for training and 20% for testing. A comparative analysis of three widely used optimization algorithms, Adaptive Moment Estimation (ADAM), Root Mean Square Propagation (RMSProp), and Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum (SGDM), revealed that ADAM consistently outperformed the others in forecasting accuracy. Model performance was evaluated with statistical metrics, and the LSTM-ADAM combination achieved the best results. In the final phase, cross-validation was applied using MGM and NASA data sources in a crosswise manner to test model generalizability and data source independence. The best performance was observed when the model was trained with MGM data and tested with NASA data, achieving a remarkably low RMSE of 3.62 mm, MAE of 2.93 mm, R2 of 0.9966, and NSE of 0.9686. When trained with NASA data and tested with MGM data, the model still demonstrated strong performance, with an RMSE of 4.48 mm, MAE of 3.22 mm, R2 of 0.9921, and NSE of 0.9678. These results demonstrate that satellite and ground-based data can be used interchangeably under suitable conditions, while also confirming the superiority of the ADAM optimizer in LSTM-based precipitation forecasting.

Source link

Vahdettin Demir www.mdpi.com