People in informal settlements, impoverished urban areas, refugee camps, prisons and war zones can be particularly vulnerable to climate threats and natural hazards. A new study explores how policymakers can address their situations.

Climate change and extreme weather events can act as drivers of migration. However, in some contexts, they can also render people unable to leave. In the new study, published in Nature Communications, scientists from more than a dozen institutions argue that these “trapped populations” require tailored policies to reduce climate risk and either help them adapt in their given location, or ensure that they are able to migrate if they want to.

“Involuntarily immobile populations are large and varied in their exposure to different threats,” said lead author Lisa Thalheimer, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria. “Cultural and legal barriers, limited access to humanitarian assistance and other constraints, such as conflict and poverty, make the livelihoods of such populations particularly vulnerable to climate-induced threats [such as] droughts, heatwaves [and] sea level rise.”

In their study, the researchers highlight a number of case studies reflecting the political and legal barriers to migration faced by vulnerable populations. One example is the nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees living in camps in southeastern Bangladesh. Starting in 2017, they fled genocidal ethnic violence in neighboring Myanmar. Now stateless, they live in what was already one of the most densely populated areas in the world, crammed into areas facing high levels of landslide exposure, along with coastal and inland flooding.

The researchers point out that current climate mobility research is largely focused on mobile populations, not those unable or unwilling to move.

“By focusing on involuntary immobility in climate and disaster risk policies, we gain a deeper understanding of how climate variability, climate change and extreme weather events impact vulnerable populations,” said coauthor Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a researcher at the Columbia Climate School’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness. “This understanding is critical for developing strategies that reduce disaster risk.”

The scientists drew up a set of comprehensive recommendations, including:

• Identifying the key drivers of involuntary immobility that make marginalized populations even more vulnerable to natural hazards and climate change impacts, as well as ensuring their inclusion in data collection processes.
• Conducting a systematic review of affected communities and their ability to adapt, relocate and mitigate the impact of natural hazards and climate change in their given location.
• Establishing a global involuntary immobility support mechanism.

The study was also coauthored by scientists in Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland and the United States. It originated with a large group discussion during the 2023 Managed Retreat Conference hosted by the Columbia Climate School.

Adapted from a press release by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.