Each year, Americans spend more and more on Valentine’s Day for their loved ones. In 2023, they spent almost $26 billion, and this year, they are expected to spend upwards of $27.5 billion. Most of this is spent on candy, 11.2% of which is chocolate. In fact, Americans will eat about 58 million pounds of chocolate the week of Valentine’s Day. But cocoa production is declining and chocolate prices are rising. Jessica Fanzo, professor of climate and director of the Columbia Climate School’s Food for Humanity Initiative, explains what cacao trees need to thrive and how climate change is making chocolate production more challenging.

Where do cacao trees grow and what conditions do they need to thrive?

The major cocoa-producing regions are in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea; Central and South America, such as Ecuador and Colombia; and in West Africa, such as Cote’ D’Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon. Roughly 70% of the cocoa produced worldwide comes from West Africa. Some of the commonalities of these regions are that they hug the equator and are tropical.

Cacao trees need warm temperatures, high humidity and reliable rainfall. Because of these three requirements, one can imagine how sensitive cocoa production is to a changing climate. In addition, cacao trees need 3 to 5 years to produce the first pods of cacao after planting the seedlings. Peak production takes another 5 years. However, climate change doesn’t have time to wait—global warming is barreling down on the planet, and cacao trees needs special care and time to grow, mature and ripen their cacao pods. Time is also needed after the cacao is sold, so to ferment and dry the pods into products such as chocolate. So, growing and maintaining cacao trees, a highly labor-intensive process, requires specific agronomic expertise such as soil management, staving off pests and diseases and ensuring pollination potential. Now, climate change is presenting challenges for those who care for this important global commodity.

How is climate change affecting cocoa production?

Less predictable weather, climate variability and climate change are significantly impacting cocoa production. Because cocoa requires consistent rainfall, droughts or prolonged drying seasons can cause water stress and reduce yields. Too much rainfall can spread diseases such as specific fungi that target cacao or cacao pod borers. High temperatures also stress trees and increase loss of soil moisture by accelerating evaporation, leading to poor yields. Some areas of West Africa are becoming incredibly hot and dry, with implications for human nutrition and health, as well as the ability to grow cacao trees in the traditional growing areas. To mitigate the impacts of heat, some farmers are moving into higher elevation areas; however, land tenure is tenuous and contentious. While in Southeast Asia and South America there may be opportunities to further grow the cocoa industry, deforestation puts these crops at risk with biodiversity loss and poor ecosystem management.

Are there ways to adapt to these effects, and are they being practiced?

Absolutely. One option for farmers is to adopt the new drought-tolerant and disease-resistant cocoa varieties that are being researched and developed. These new varieties are being tried in several places, such as Ghana and Brazil. A second option is for farmers to grow cocoa in more “mixed” agroforestry systems where cocoa could be grown under shade trees (such as plantain). These trees moderate temperatures and maintain soil moisture. In addition, adding more fruit trees, such as avocado or mango, into the farming system can supplement livelihoods and provide nutrition for households. Third, soil and water management are key, including rainwater capture and harvesting, and if possible, investments or assistance with irrigation strategies. Mulching techniques can retain soil moisture during droughts. Precision agricultural tools and mobile apps can also provide farmers with information, such as weather forecasts, market prices and on-farm sensors, to better prepare for extreme weather events or market volatility.

Connecting farmers to certification and cooperative programs and ensuring that governments and the private sector support these mechanisms is critical. Certification programs such as Fair Trade, Rainforest Alliance and organic certification schemes can provide growers with better prices, training and fiscal incentives for more climate-resilient cocoa farming. Last and most importantly, farmers need assistance, support and community to ensure they can make a climate adaptation transition. For all of these adaptation technologies and on-farm management practices, extension services and cooperative farming groups could be utilized and established to provide technical support, access credit and share finance and risk.

Is there any way consumers can incentivize more sustainable growing practices through what they buy?

Consumers can support ethically sourced chocolate by buying products with clearly labeled sustainability certifications. These certifications mean companies not only source their chocolate from farmers who are taking measures to produce cocoa in more environmentally sustainable ways, but for many companies, it means that they are working to ensure farmers get living wages and fair prices for their commodity and are striving for better and fair labor practices. Consumers can also look for brands that source chocolate from farms that support agroforestry, such as shade-grown cocoa production. There are a range of chocolate products on the market but one must do the research into how brands source their chocolate and support policies and policymakers who care about fair trade, reforestation and climate change.

Why are cocoa prices so high?

In 2023, cocoa yields were low in both Cote D’Ivoire and Ghana, major producers, due to low rainfall and disease, sending prices skyrocketing. Over the last two years, cocoa prices—set by the Intercontinental Exchange—are up more than 300%. Due to a variety of factors that first started with climate-related events that decimated yields in West Africa and other factors such as market speculation, future contracts and the slow pace of ‘adding’ trees to bump up yields, prices have remained high. So get ready to pay more if you want to buy your loved one some chocolate this Valentine’s Day.