IJGI, Vol. 14, Pages 308: A Spatiotemporal Multi-Model Ensemble Framework for Urban Multimodal Traffic Flow Prediction

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information doi: 10.3390/ijgi14080308

Authors:
Zhenkai Wang
Lujin Hu

Urban multimodal travel trajectory prediction is a core challenge in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSs). It requires modeling both spatiotemporal dependencies and dynamic interactions among different travel modes such as taxi, bike-sharing, and buses. To address the limitations of existing methods in capturing these diverse trajectory characteristics, we propose a spatiotemporal multi-model ensemble framework, which is an ensemble model called GLEN (GCN and LSTM Ensemble Network). Firstly, the trajectory feature adaptive driven model selection mechanism classifies trajectories into dynamic travel and fixed-route scenarios. Secondly, we use a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to capture dynamic travel patterns and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to model fixed-route patterns. Subsequently the outputs of these models are dynamically weighted, integrated, and fused over a spatiotemporal grid to produce accurate forecasts of urban total traffic flow at multiple future time steps. Finally, experimental validation using Beijing’s Chaoyang district datasets demonstrates that our framework effectively captures spatiotemporal and interactive characteristics between multimodal travel trajectories and outperforms mainstream baselines, thereby offering robust support for urban traffic management and planning.

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Zhenkai Wang www.mdpi.com