JCM, Vol. 14, Pages 7084: Age Estimation from Lateral Cephalograms Using Deep Learning: A Pilot Study from Early Childhood to Older Adults

Journal of Clinical Medicine doi: 10.3390/jcm14197084

Authors:
Ryohei Tokinaga
Yuichi Mine
Yuki Yoshimi
Shota Okazaki
Shota Ito
Saori Takeda
Saki Ogawa
Tzu-Yu Peng
Naoya Kakimoto
Kotaro Tanimoto
Takeshi Murayama

Background/Objectives: The purpose of this study is twofold: first, to construct and evaluate a deep-learning model for automated age estimation from lateral cephalograms spanning early childhood to older adulthood; and second, to determine whether sex-specific training improves predictive accuracy. Methods: This retrospective study examined 600 lateral cephalograms (ages 4–63 years; 300 female, 300 male). The images were randomly divided into five cross-validation folds, stratified by sex and age. An ImageNet-pretrained DenseNet-121 was employed for age regression. Three networks were trained: mixed-sex, female-only, and male-only. Performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Grad-CAM heatmaps quantified the contributions of six craniofacial regions. Duplicate patients were excluded to minimize sampling bias. Results: The mixed-sex model achieved an MAE of 2.50 ± 0.27 years, an R2 of 0.84 ± 0.04, the female-only model achieved an MAE of 3.04 ± 0.37 years and an R2 of 0.82 ± 0.04, and the male-only model achieved an MAE of 2.29 ± 0.27 years and an R2 of 0.83 ± 0.04. Grad-CAM revealed dominant activations over the frontal bone in the mixed-sex model; the occipital bone and cervical soft tissue in the female model; and the parietal bone in the male model. Conclusions: A DenseNet-121-based analysis of lateral cephalograms can provide a clinically relevant age estimation with an error margin of approximately ±2.5 years. Using male-only model slightly improves performance metrics, and careful attention to training data distribution is crucial for broad applicability. Our findings suggest a potential contribution to forensic age estimation, growth and development research, and support for unidentified deceased individuals when dental records are unavailable.

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Ryohei Tokinaga www.mdpi.com