Medical Sciences, Vol. 14, Pages 13: Validation of an ICD-9-CM-Based Monitoring Tool for Regional Trauma Systems: The PaTraME Study in Pavia Province, Italy

Medical Sciences doi: 10.3390/medsci14010013

Authors:
Paola Fugazzola
Leandro Gentile
Francesco Chiarolanza
Pietro Perotti
Mario Alessiani
Federico Capra Marzani
Lorenzo Cobianchi
Simone Frassini
Federico Alberto Grassi
Catherine Klersy
Alba Muzzi
Alessandra Palo
Stefano Perlini
Maurizio Raimondi
Luca Ansaloni
on behalf of the PaTraME Study Group on behalf of the PaTraME Study Group

Background/Objectives: Continuous trauma-system monitoring is limited by the lack of scalable, low-cost tools. The Pavia Trauma Management Epidemiology (PaTraME) project uses routinely collected ICD-9-CM discharge data (SDO) and the Trauma Mortality Probability Model (TMPM) to derive Injury Severity Score (XISS) and probability of death (TMPM-POD), creating a cost-free surveillance framework for regional trauma networks. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of all major-trauma admissions (XISS > 15) in Pavia Province from 2014 to 2021. Anonymized SDO records were linked with emergency department flows and mortality registries. XISS and TMPM-POD were computed for each case. Case volumes, severity distributions, hub-centralization, and mortality (in-hospital, 30-day, and 180-day) were analyzed using trend and regression models (p < 0.05). Conclusions: We identified 1959 major-trauma admissions. Volumes increased up to 2019, dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic, and partially recovered in 2021 (p < 0.001). Overall, 61.5% of patients were admitted to hub centers, with an upward trend (p < 0.001). Hubs treated more severe trauma (median XISS 17 vs. 16; TMPM-POD 0.06 vs. 0.05, both p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality remained stable (8.2–11.4%, p = 0.828). TMPM-POD showed strong agreement with observed in-hospital mortality (Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient 0.81), though calibration worsened at higher risk levels. PaTraME confirms TMPM-POD as a valid mortality predictor and demonstrates a reproducible administrative-data framework for trauma surveillance. Rising hub admissions and stable mortality despite increasing complexity suggest improved system performance. Stratification of XISS and TMPM-POD between hub and spoke centers highlights peripheral hospitals managing disproportionately severe cases, informing targeted resource allocation and supporting quality improvement via automated dashboards.

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Paola Fugazzola www.mdpi.com