In-depth analysis

February 13, 2025

We forecast that worldwide production of petroleum and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 will grow more in non-OPEC+ countries than in OPEC+ countries in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We estimate that total world petroleum and other liquids supply increased by about 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and will increase by 1.9 million b/d in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. Increasing crude oil production from four countries in the Americas—the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil—drives this growth. Because of ongoing production restraint among OPEC+ countries, we forecast the group’s production to grow by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026.

Global petroleum liquids production outside of OPEC+ grew by 1.8 million b/d in 2024 and grows by 1.8 million b/d in 2025 and 1.0 million b/d in 2026 in our forecast. We forecast production will grow from 2024 to 2026 by 0.5 million b/d in Canada, 0.3 million b/d in Guyana, and 0.3 million b/d in Brazil. Most of the forecast growth comes from the United States, where we expect production to grow by 1.1 million b/d over the same period.

The United States continues to produce more crude oil and petroleum liquids than any other country. U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.2 million b/d in 2024 due partly to improved efficiency with fewer rigs. We expect production of petroleum liquids in the United States to increase by 0.6 million b/d in 2025 and by 0.5 million b/d in 2026. The Permian region accounts for about 50% of U.S. crude oil production of 13.7 million b/d in 2026 in our forecast. Further, the growth in the Permian offsets contractions in other regions.

In 2024, Canada was the fourth-largest oil producing nation, trailing only the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. We forecast production of petroleum and other liquids to grow in Canada by 0.3 million b/d in 2025 and 0.2 million b/d in 2026, starting at 6.0 million b/d in 2024. Production growth in Canada is supported by the start-up of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion that transports oil to Canada’s West Coast for access to export markets from landlocked Alberta.

We expect producers in Brazil to add new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units to existing fields in the Santos Basin. The Alexandre de Gusmão will be the fifth FPSO installed at the Mero field and will begin production in mid-2025. Also in 2025, the FPSOs Almirante Tamandaré and P-78 in the Búzios field in the Santos Basin plan to begin operations. We forecast that these new projects will increase petroleum liquids production in Brazil by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.2 million b/d in 2026.

We forecast that petroleum liquids production in Guyana will increase by 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and 0.1 million b/d in 2026, driven by the start-up of the Yellowtail project within the Stabroek block. The development of the Stabroek block includes three projects, Yellowtail, Uaru, and Whiptail, where we expect the combined production capacity to reach approximately 1.3 million b/d by the end of 2027.

Production from OPEC+ members accounted for 47% (35.7 million b/d) of global crude oil production in 2024. We forecast that OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 as the group gradually increases production in line with the timeline agreed to at the meeting held in December 2024. In addition, the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million b/d that were announced in November 2023 will be extended until the end of March 2025 and then gradually phased out by the end of September 2026. The additional voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million b/d that were announced in April 2023 were extended until the end of December 2026.

We expect OPEC+’s share of global oil production to decrease by one percentage point to 46% in 2025 and 2026, compared with 53% in 2016 when the expanded group was initially formed. OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity was 4.6 million b/d in 2024, 103% (2.3 million b/d) more than in 2019.

Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in OPEC by volume, representing about a third of the group’s total supply. In 2024, Saudi Arabia produced 9.0 million b/d, down 13% (1.4 million b/d) compared with 2022—before OPEC+ announced the extension of its additional voluntary cuts.

Among the OPEC+ members, Russia was the largest crude oil producer in 2024, averaging 9.2 million b/d. After Russia and Saudi Arabia, the largest producers by volume were Iraq (4.4 million b/d), the United Arab Emirates (2.9 million b/d), and Kuwait (2.5 million b/d).

Principal contributor: Kenya Schott