Philosophies, Vol. 10, Pages 91: Between Uncertainty and Responsibility: A Philosophical Inquiry into Climate Change Projections

Philosophies doi: 10.3390/philosophies10040091

Authors:
Fernando Watson-Hernández
Isabel Guzmán-Arias

This paper explores how uncertainty in climate change projections both shapes and is shaped by key epistemic, methodological, ethical, and political concerns. Drawing on a review of key philosophical sources, it examines the relationship between scientific objectivity and the influence of social, ethical, and political values in contexts of deep uncertainty. Authors such as Wendy Parker and Heather Douglas debate the role that social values play in the estimation and communication of scientific uncertainty, particularly when decisions carry significant ethical and political consequences. At the same time, several studies emphasize that, beyond the influence of values, there are structural limitations inherent to complex climate models that prevent uncertainty from being fully reduced. Taken together, these perspectives suggest that both evaluative judgments and technical constraints must be considered when interpreting and managing uncertainty in climate science, especially insofar as it informs collective decision-making processes. The article also examines how certain institutional practices tend to downplay uncertainty, generating biases that affect both scientific communication and public decision-making. It, therefore, explores potential solutions through more integrative approaches, such as robust modeling, risk assessments focused on low-probability but high-impact events (HILL), and collective ethical deliberation. The paper further discusses the concept of normative uncertainty, illustrated through the case of the Tempisque River water conflict, which highlights the difficulty of reconciling competing values. It concludes that, far from being eliminated, uncertainty must be managed through tools that integrate technical rationality, ethical sensitivity, and adaptive governance.

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Fernando Watson-Hernández www.mdpi.com