Processes, Vol. 13, Pages 2708: A Study on the Key Factors Influencing Power Grid Outage Restoration Times: A Case Study of the Jiexi Area

Processes doi: 10.3390/pr13092708

Authors:
Jiajun Lin
Ruiyue Xie
Haobin Lin
Xingyuan Guo
Yudong Mao
Zhaosong Fang

In rural and mountainous regions, power supply reliability remains a persistent challenge due to structural vulnerabilities, data incompleteness, and limited automation. In this study, a data-driven methodology is leveraged, wherein a validated machine learning framework comprising Random Forest (RF), Lasso Regression, and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) is applied to analyze outage data. The machine learning models, validated on a held-out test set, demonstrated modest but positive predictive performance, confirming a quantifiable, non-random relationship between grid structure and restoration time. This validation provides a credible foundation for the subsequent feature importance analysis. Through a transparent, consensus-based analysis of these models, the most robust influencing factors were identified. The results reveal that key structural indicators related to network redundancy (e.g., Inter-Bus Loop Rate) and electrical stress (e.g., Peak Daily Load Current, Load Factor) are the most significant predictors of prolonged outages. Furthermore, statistical analyses confirm that increasing structural redundancy and regulating line loads can effectively reduce outage duration. These findings offer practical, data-driven guidance for prioritizing investments in rural grid planning and reinforcement. This study contributes to the broader application of machine learning in energy systems, particularly showcasing a robust methodology for identifying key drivers under data and resource constraints.

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