Safety, Vol. 11, Pages 121: Boosting Traffic Crash Prediction Performance with Ensemble Techniques and Hyperparameter Tuning

Safety doi: 10.3390/safety11040121

Authors:
Naima Goubraim
Zouhair Elamrani Abou Elassad
Hajar Mousannif
Mohamed Ameksa

Road traffic crashes are a major global challenge, resulting in significant loss of life, economic burden, and societal impact. This study seeks to enhance the precision of traffic accident prediction using advanced machine learning techniques. This study employs an ensemble learning approach combining the Random Forest, the Bagging Classifier (Bootstrap Aggregating), the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithms. To address class imbalance and feature relevance, we implement feature selection using the Extra Trees Classifier and oversampling using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). Rigorous hyperparameter tuning is applied to optimize model performance. Our results show that the ensemble approach, coupled with hyperparameter optimization, significantly improves prediction accuracy. This research contributes to the development of more effective road safety strategies and can help to reduce the number of road accidents.

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Naima Goubraim www.mdpi.com