Water, Vol. 17, Pages 2025: Research on Urban Flood Risk Assessment Based on Improved Structural Equation Modeling (ISEM) and the Extensible Matter-Element Analysis Method (EMAM)

Water doi: 10.3390/w17132025

Authors:
Lin Yan
Lihong Zhang
Weichao Yang
Caixia Chen
Jianxin Lin
Zhenxian Chen
Xuefeng Jiang
Haoyang Liang
Peijiang Cong
Jinhua Gao
Tuo Xue

With the rapid development of the global economy, urban flood events are occurring more frequently. Scientific risk assessment methods are of great significance in reducing the loss of life and property. This study is devoted to developing an integrated urban flood risk assessment approach based on improved structural equation modeling and the extensible matter-element analysis method. Firstly, a flood risk assessment index system containing four dimensions (hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and regional shelter capability) is established according to a hydrological–hydrodynamic model and a literature survey. Subsequently, improved structural equation modeling (ISEM) coupled with Pearson’s correlation coefficient is introduced to determine indicator weights while eliminating correlations among indicator variables, thereby enhancing the accuracy of the weight calculation. Finally, the extensible matter-element evaluation analysis method (EMAM) is employed to conduct the urban flood risk assessment, providing a more scientific evaluation of urban flood risks through the calculation results of the correlation degree between index factors and risk levels. The integrated flood risk assessment approach was applied in the Liwan District in Guangzhou City, China, and the results demonstrated that the novel approach effectively enhances the accuracy of urban flood risk assessment by 23.69%. In conclusion, this research offers a novel and high-precision methodology for risk assessment, contributing to decision-making in disaster prevention and control.

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Lin Yan www.mdpi.com