Water, Vol. 17, Pages 2645: Forecasting Water Consumption for Sustainable Development in Saudi Arabia: A Copula-Based Approach

Water doi: 10.3390/w17172645

Authors:
Amwaj Falah AL-Rashidi
Dalia Kamal Alnagar
Hussein Eledum

Effective water resource planning is essential for Saudi Arabia, where limited freshwater availability is challenged by rapid population growth, economic development, and climate variability. This study introduces a copula-based modeling framework for forecasting water demand across the country’s urban, industrial, and agricultural sectors. Copulas, compared to traditional models, effectively capture nonlinear and asymmetric relationships among essential variables, including population, temperature, GDP, and sectoral water consumption. Multivariate copula models (Gaussian, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, t-Copula, and Vine structures) were fitted and evaluated using historical data from 2008 to 2024, obtained from national authorities, including the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture, the General Authority for Statistics, and the National Center for Meteorology. The 4D normal copula was developed as the most efficient method across all sectors, with MAPE values of 6.37% for urban, 17.51% for industrial, and 23.20% for agricultural consumption. Scenario-based forecasts, which include baseline, high-growth, and sustainability-focused trajectories, indicate that the sustainability scenario yields the best results, resulting in significant demand reductions (21.7% urban, 20.4% industrial, and 8.2% agricultural) with minimal climate impact (+0.4 °C) and the lowest risk levels. The study demonstrates the successful decoupling of water demand from population and economic growth through proper policy interventions, with conditional risk analysis offering actionable early warning capabilities for proactive management. These findings provide a valuable foundation for enhancing national water strategy planning in Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030 and contribute to methodological improvements applicable to water-scarce regions internationally.

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